Facultade de Fisioterapia

Forecasting SO2 Pollution Incidents by means of Elman Artificial Neural Networks and ARIMA Models

Bernardo-Sánchez, Antonio; Ordoñez, Celestino; Sánchez-Lasheras, Fernando; de Cos-Juez, Francisco J.; Roca Pardiñas, Javier
Abstract:
An SO2 emission episode at coal-fired power station occurs when the series of bihourly average of SO2 concentration, taken at 5-minute intervals, is greater than a specific value. Advance prediction of these episodes of pollution is very important for companies generating electricity by burning coal since it allows them to take appropriate preventive measures. In order to forecast SO2 pollution episodes, three different methods were tested: Elman neural networks, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, and a hybrid method combining both. The three methods were applied to a time series of SO2 concentrations registered in a control station in the vicinity of a coal-fired power station. The results obtained showed a better performance of the hybrid method over the Elman networks and the ARIMA models. The best prediction was obtained 115 minutes in advance by the hybrid model.
Year:
2013
Type of Publication:
Article
Keywords:
TIME-SERIES; STATISTICAL-MODELS; PARTICULATE MATTER; PREDICTION; CHILE
Journal:
Abstract and Applied Analysis
Volume:
2013
Pages:
238259
Month:
November
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1155/2013/238259
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